Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/23 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +42.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -4.7 | -3.7 | -0.7 | +9.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 23% | 24% | 32% | -9.7 | +33.4 | -11.4 | -12.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 49% | 15% | 22% | -1.0 | -8.8 | +10.5 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 41% | 22% | 22% | -7.8 | -6.3 | -10.4 | +24.5 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,500 | 11% | 33% | 14% | 42% | -1.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 10% | 32% | 14% | 44% | +24.4 | -27.2 | -1.6 | +4.4 |
| South 1 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 14% | 12% | 52% | -13.5 | -7.8 | +26.5 | -5.1 |
| South 2 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 13% | 29% | 45% | -9.5 | -19.2 | +42.1 | -13.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 1% | 79% | 18% | +3.2 | -0.9 | +0.5 | -2.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 1% | 0% | 87% | 12% | +28.5 | -13.0 | +6.1 | -21.6 |