Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/26 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,800 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +12.6 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -4.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 35% | 22% | 22% | 22% | -15.5 | -4.8 | -3.1 | +23.5 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 20% | 19% | 40% | -3.1 | +15.2 | -6.8 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 28% | 16% | 35% | -6.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 29% | 18% | 37% | -10.5 | +38.2 | -11.6 | -16.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,300 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 9% | 62% | 10% | 19% | +9.0 | -1.2 | -10.6 | +2.8 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 12% | 62% | 6% | 20% | -4.6 | +1.1 | +4.4 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 9% | 64% | 7% | 20% | -1.6 | +4.6 | -3.8 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,600 from Akina Mizuhara | 7% | 70% | 4% | 18% | 0.0 | -3.9 | +4.6 | -0.8 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 8% | 68% | 6% | 19% | -0.5 | +20.0 | +1.3 | -20.9 |
| South 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 1% | 92% | 3% | 4% | -3.3 | -12.9 | +20.4 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,500 from Takaharu Ooi | 2% | 83% | 8% | 7% | 0.0 | +0.5 | +5.2 | -5.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 84% | 10% | 5% | -0.6 | +8.1 | -3.3 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 96% | 1% | 4% | +29.7 | +1.8 | -11.4 | -20.1 |