Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/2 Game 2
Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+70.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +38.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 22% | 25% | 27% | +3.2 | +3.3 | -8.8 | +2.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 28% | 25% | 19% | 29% | -2.6 | -6.4 | +0.4 | +8.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 20% | 19% | 35% | +7.5 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 30% | 18% | 18% | 34% | -6.8 | -2.8 | -8.6 | +18.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 14% | 11% | 51% | +3.6 | -7.8 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 25% | 11% | 12% | 52% | +32.5 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -30.3 |
| South 1 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 60% | 10% | 10% | 20% | -12.0 | +22.7 | -6.8 | -3.8 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 21% | -16.5 | +38.5 | -9.7 | -12.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 23% | 61% | 4% | 12% | -5.2 | +25.1 | -20.0 | +0.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 88% | 1% | 5% | -2.3 | +3.7 | -0.3 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 5% | 91% | 1% | 3% | +20.4 | -3.1 | +0.7 | -18.0 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 86% | 0% | 1% | -5.4 | +1.5 | -9.4 | +13.3 |
| South 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 5% | 93% | 0% | 2% | -1.2 | +4.0 | +0.7 | -3.4 |