Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/5 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+63.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +0.2 | +1.7 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | -1.0 | -3.6 | +15.3 | -10.7 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 24% | 33% | 20% | -14.1 | +33.4 | -10.1 | -9.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 1,100 | 14% | 50% | 23% | 13% | -1.5 | -0.4 | +4.8 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 12% | 50% | 26% | 12% | +24.0 | +1.1 | -26.8 | +1.7 |
| East 4 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 3,900 | 27% | 50% | 11% | 12% | -6.1 | -3.7 | -2.6 | +12.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 22% | 47% | 11% | 19% | +0.8 | +17.1 | -14.2 | -3.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 18% | 67% | 5% | 11% | +3.4 | +1.3 | -2.9 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 12,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 20% | 66% | 3% | 11% | -10.6 | -1.8 | -21.0 | +33.4 |
| South 2 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,300 from Nakabayashi Kei | 10% | 62% | 1% | 27% | +1.8 | -0.5 | -1.5 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 9% | 64% | 1% | 27% | -3.5 | +8.2 | -2.0 | -2.7 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 79% | 0% | 18% | -6.1 | +11.4 | +0.3 | -5.6 |