Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/5 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+63.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +33.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -1.0 | +0.6 | 0.0 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -0.8 | -4.8 | +14.0 | -8.3 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 22% | 35% | 20% | -15.8 | +33.3 | -9.4 | -8.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 1,100 | 13% | 47% | 25% | 15% | +1.5 | -0.1 | +2.1 | -3.5 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 13% | 48% | 26% | 12% | +23.7 | +0.8 | -24.5 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 3,900 | 27% | 48% | 12% | 13% | -5.9 | -0.8 | -5.2 | +11.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 23% | 49% | 10% | 18% | -1.1 | +16.3 | -12.1 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 66% | 5% | 12% | +1.7 | +3.8 | -1.6 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 16% | 71% | 5% | 8% | -7.6 | -4.3 | -23.1 | +35.0 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 61% | 1% | 28% | +1.3 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 10% | 63% | 1% | 27% | -2.9 | +8.5 | -2.5 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 79% | 0% | 17% | -6.5 | +11.6 | 0.0 | -5.1 |