Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/13 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+63.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +32.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +32.0 | -10.1 | -11.7 | -10.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 17% | 16% | 18% | -19.9 | +35.4 | -6.6 | -8.9 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 30% | 44% | 13% | 14% | +9.1 | -1.5 | -0.9 | -6.8 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 1,500 | 38% | 40% | 12% | 10% | -1.4 | -3.7 | +7.7 | -2.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 38% | 16% | 10% | -4.1 | -0.9 | +3.5 | +1.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 34% | 37% | 18% | 12% | +19.2 | -2.0 | -14.2 | -2.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 32% | 8% | 8% | -6.6 | +1.8 | +3.3 | +1.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 45% | 34% | 11% | 10% | +0.4 | -0.5 | +7.2 | -7.0 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 47% | 34% | 13% | 6% | +17.0 | -7.5 | -3.9 | -5.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 65% | 23% | 9% | 4% | +1.9 | -5.2 | +5.3 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 70% | 17% | 10% | 3% | -0.6 | -18.4 | +22.6 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 73% | 5% | 20% | 3% | -4.3 | -4.3 | +10.8 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 64% | 4% | 29% | 2% | +6.6 | +36.6 | -41.7 | -1.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 77% | 20% | 1% | 1% | +14.4 | -6.1 | +0.7 | -8.9 |