Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/15 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+51.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -7.4 | -1.8 | +9.1 | +0.1 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,200 from Mari Takamiya | 19% | 23% | 33% | 25% | -6.7 | -3.1 | -2.1 | +11.9 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 20% | 30% | 34% | -6.2 | +27.3 | -15.4 | -5.7 |
| East 4 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 42% | 17% | 28% | -6.8 | -4.8 | +29.2 | -17.5 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 36% | 40% | 16% | -15.2 | -4.8 | -5.5 | +25.6 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 30% | 34% | 34% | -3.0 | -10.6 | -1.8 | +15.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 18% | 30% | 51% | -1.5 | +2.8 | +6.3 | -7.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 2% | 22% | 36% | 40% | -6.5 | -3.2 | +17.4 | -7.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 0% | 16% | 59% | 25% | +12.9 | +5.7 | -37.9 | +19.3 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Mari Takamiya | 2% | 21% | 15% | 61% | -7.9 | +44.1 | -13.0 | -23.3 |