Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/16 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+67.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +27.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +4.3 | +4.0 | -5.3 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 28% | 28% | 22% | 23% | -5.4 | -1.0 | +5.6 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -0.2 | -3.3 | -0.3 | +3.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -3.9 | -3.6 | +7.6 | -0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 21% | 30% | 27% | -3.0 | +3.6 | +4.0 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 23% | 34% | 23% | +38.5 | -8.0 | -20.4 | -10.1 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 52% | 16% | 15% | 16% | -7.5 | -5.1 | +27.8 | -15.3 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 40% | 14% | 38% | 7% | -27.2 | +24.0 | +2.8 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada | 19% | 30% | 43% | 9% | -4.0 | -5.2 | +23.3 | -14.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 16% | 72% | 3% | -2.4 | -3.3 | +3.4 | +2.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 7% | 12% | 77% | 4% | +24.1 | -9.5 | -0.1 | -14.5 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 5% | 77% | 1% | -4.2 | -7.0 | +17.9 | -6.8 |