Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/16 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+67.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +23.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 26% | 23% | 25% | +2.7 | +2.6 | -2.1 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,000 | 28% | 26% | 23% | 23% | -4.2 | -0.3 | +5.4 | -0.9 |
| East 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 26% | 24% | -0.4 | -4.0 | -0.7 | +5.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 24% | 23% | 26% | 27% | -2.0 | -2.0 | +8.7 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 23% | 22% | 31% | 24% | -5.1 | +2.8 | +6.2 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 23% | 36% | 21% | +37.3 | -8.7 | -20.0 | -8.6 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 15% | 20% | 14% | -6.8 | -5.0 | +23.2 | -11.3 |
| South 1 | Daigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 41% | 13% | 37% | 9% | -24.5 | +24.5 | +3.3 | -3.3 |
| South 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Okada Sayaka | 19% | 29% | 43% | 9% | -6.4 | -4.3 | +22.6 | -11.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 9% | 17% | 71% | 4% | -2.8 | -3.8 | +5.1 | +1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 8% | 11% | 77% | 4% | +25.9 | -9.2 | -1.9 | -14.8 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 5% | 75% | 1% | -5.3 | -7.1 | +19.1 | -6.7 |