Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/16 Game 2
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+51.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +24.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +15.7 | -7.4 | -3.8 | -4.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 35% | 20% | 21% | 23% | -3.3 | +24.9 | -3.0 | -18.7 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 32% | 37% | 18% | 13% | +11.9 | -10.9 | +1.5 | -2.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 43% | 26% | 19% | 12% | -4.6 | -2.4 | +2.1 | +4.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 39% | 26% | 21% | 14% | -3.5 | -4.4 | +7.1 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko | 36% | 23% | 26% | 15% | -7.9 | +15.0 | -5.0 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 5,200 | 29% | 36% | 22% | 13% | -2.5 | +14.7 | -1.8 | -10.4 |
| South 1 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 1,500 | 25% | 51% | 19% | 6% | +4.8 | -0.9 | -3.3 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,200 from Hinata Aiko | 27% | 49% | 17% | 7% | -14.5 | +17.9 | -1.3 | -2.1 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 71% | 12% | 6% | -3.6 | -8.1 | -6.6 | +18.3 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Hinata Aiko | 11% | 66% | 12% | 11% | -7.3 | +1.1 | +5.9 | +0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 8% | 67% | 13% | 12% | -35.5 | +1.5 | -7.3 | +41.3 |
| South 4 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 67% | 2% | 31% | +35.8 | +10.3 | -26.0 | -20.0 |