Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/16 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+51.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +15.0 | -5.9 | -3.5 | -5.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 36% | 21% | 21% | 22% | -3.0 | +24.0 | +0.1 | -21.2 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | +13.2 | -12.9 | -1.7 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 26% | 18% | 12% | -5.5 | -1.5 | +3.7 | +3.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 40% | 24% | 21% | 14% | -4.0 | -2.0 | +4.0 | +2.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,300 from Aiko Hinata | 37% | 24% | 25% | 14% | -7.2 | +11.6 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 5,200 | 30% | 34% | 23% | 14% | -3.3 | +18.1 | -4.9 | -9.9 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 1,500 | 25% | 51% | 16% | 8% | +3.1 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,200 from Aiko Hinata | 26% | 51% | 17% | 6% | -13.3 | +14.9 | +1.0 | -2.6 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 70% | 13% | 5% | -4.6 | -6.5 | -8.8 | +19.9 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Aiko Hinata | 10% | 67% | 11% | 12% | -6.2 | -0.4 | +6.0 | +0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 8% | 67% | 13% | 13% | -35.8 | +1.7 | -7.2 | +41.3 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 66% | 2% | 32% | +35.8 | +10.9 | -25.7 | -21.0 |