Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

2/16 Game 2

Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+51.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +24.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Shibukawa Namba● Hinata Aiko● Katsumata Kenji● Kayamori Sayaka0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shibukawa● Hinata● Katsumata● Kayamori
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
East 1Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,00024%25%25%26%+15.7-7.4-3.8-4.5
East 1, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka35%20%21%23%-3.3+24.9-3.0-18.7
East 2Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba32%37%18%13%+11.9-10.9+1.5-2.4
East 3Draw43%26%19%12%-4.6-2.4+2.1+4.9
East 3, 1 honbaDraw39%26%21%14%-3.5-4.4+7.1+0.8
East 3, 2 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 1,300 from Hinata Aiko36%23%26%15%-7.9+15.0-5.0-2.1
East 4Shibukawa Namba tsumo 5,20029%36%22%13%-2.5+14.7-1.8-10.4
South 1Hinata Aiko tsumo 1,50025%51%19%6%+4.8-0.9-3.3-0.5
South 1, 1 honbaShibukawa Namba ron 3,200 from Hinata Aiko27%49%17%7%-14.5+17.9-1.3-2.1
South 2Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,00011%71%12%6%-3.6-8.1-6.6+18.3
South 3Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Hinata Aiko11%66%12%11%-7.3+1.1+5.9+0.3
South 3, 1 honbaKayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko8%67%13%12%-35.5+1.5-7.3+41.3
South 4Hinata Aiko tsumo 16,0000%67%2%31%+35.8+10.3-26.0-20.0

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)