Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/19 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+61.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +27.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +4.5 | -2.7 | +1.5 | -3.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 28% | 23% | 25% | 24% | -2.4 | +11.3 | -7.1 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 27% | 31% | 21% | 22% | -0.9 | -26.4 | -0.5 | +27.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 13% | 21% | 43% | +0.8 | -5.2 | +2.9 | +1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 10% | 21% | 44% | -7.2 | -2.6 | -10.3 | +20.2 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,100 | 15% | 8% | 11% | 66% | -1.2 | -4.2 | +4.4 | +1.0 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 6% | 11% | 70% | -12.0 | -3.6 | -3.7 | +19.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 2% | 4% | 92% | +2.1 | +0.6 | +2.4 | -5.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 4% | 3% | 8% | 85% | -3.4 | -17.6 | +21.3 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 13% | 86% | -7.8 | -4.2 | +30.8 | -18.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 0% | 49% | 50% | -1.9 | +12.3 | -28.4 | +18.0 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 7% | 93% | +5.0 | -4.7 | -1.9 | +1.7 |