Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/19 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+61.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +25.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 25% | 23% | 26% | +2.5 | -3.0 | +3.6 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 28% | 23% | 26% | 24% | -3.5 | +11.4 | -8.1 | +0.3 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 26% | 30% | 21% | 24% | +1.9 | -27.7 | +0.2 | +25.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 25% | 13% | 20% | 43% | -2.5 | -1.3 | +1.6 | +2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 23% | 11% | 21% | 44% | -5.4 | -5.6 | -9.6 | +20.6 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,100 | 15% | 7% | 12% | 66% | 0.0 | -3.8 | +5.0 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 6% | 12% | 66% | -12.6 | -4.1 | -3.0 | +19.7 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 2% | 6% | 89% | +1.2 | +2.6 | +1.3 | -5.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 4% | 4% | 8% | 83% | -2.8 | -18.9 | +19.5 | +2.2 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 11% | 88% | -7.9 | -4.0 | +31.3 | -19.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 1% | 0% | 48% | 51% | -2.3 | +11.9 | -26.6 | +17.0 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 8% | 92% | +5.1 | -4.5 | -2.8 | +2.1 |