Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/22 Game 1
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+66.7pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +46.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -4.2 | +3.8 | +1.4 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 27% | 26% | 25% | +0.2 | -7.1 | -2.6 | +9.5 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 22% | 23% | 32% | -9.7 | +36.2 | -19.4 | -7.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 52% | 10% | 24% | -2.2 | +0.6 | -3.1 | +4.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Shingo Hori | 13% | 52% | 9% | 27% | -18.7 | -3.0 | +0.1 | +21.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 45% | 7% | 42% | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.2 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 5% | 42% | 7% | 47% | -2.9 | +14.4 | -2.4 | -9.0 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,300 from Shingo Hori | 3% | 58% | 5% | 34% | -6.8 | +9.4 | -0.5 | -2.1 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 71% | 3% | 25% | +3.8 | +1.9 | -0.6 | -5.1 |
| South 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 5,800 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 79% | 3% | 18% | -3.1 | -12.4 | +11.9 | +3.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 64% | 7% | 29% | -10.1 | -26.3 | +59.2 | -22.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 23% | 62% | 14% | -4.8 | +46.3 | -31.8 | -9.8 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 0% | 92% | 4% | 4% | -0.2 | +5.1 | +1.2 | -6.1 |