Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/23 Game 2
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+84.7pt). The game was decided in South 2: Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 2,900 from Ken Sonoda | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | +7.2 | +1.6 | +0.4 | -9.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 31% | 25% | 25% | 20% | +27.5 | -10.6 | -9.8 | -7.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Rumi Nikaido | 54% | 16% | 17% | 14% | +16.5 | +0.3 | -15.8 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 14% | 8% | 10% | -3.3 | +0.5 | +2.4 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 67% | 13% | 9% | 12% | -1.4 | +16.5 | -12.5 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 64% | 21% | 6% | 9% | -1.0 | +8.7 | -7.5 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 61% | 26% | 4% | 9% | -0.4 | -3.7 | +8.9 | -4.8 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 63% | 23% | 6% | 8% | +3.5 | +1.0 | -6.2 | +1.6 |
| East 4 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 22% | 3% | 8% | -0.8 | -3.1 | +17.5 | -13.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 20% | 6% | 4% | +2.7 | +0.7 | -6.9 | +3.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 72% | 19% | 4% | 5% | -7.4 | +22.2 | -17.8 | +3.0 |
| South 2 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 58% | 38% | 2% | 3% | -18.9 | +29.8 | -4.7 | -6.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 18,000 | 21% | 78% | 1% | 1% | -14.2 | +27.3 | -6.7 | -6.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -0.4 | -2.0 | -4.4 | +6.7 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -5.2 | -4.2 | +22.4 | -13.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +0.5 | +0.5 | -26.6 | +25.6 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,800 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.4 | 0.0 | -5.7 | +7.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +3.6 | +0.5 | +0.6 | -4.8 |