Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/29 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+60.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +30.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -13.8 | -4.8 | +24.7 | -6.2 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 7,700 from Hiroe Sugawara | 17% | 21% | 42% | 20% | -0.1 | +19.4 | -3.0 | -16.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,600 from Tomohiro Honda | 16% | 33% | 37% | 14% | -0.3 | -7.0 | +8.9 | -1.6 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 26% | 46% | 12% | +10.3 | -0.3 | -8.6 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 21% | 27% | 40% | 12% | +21.0 | +0.5 | -0.2 | -21.4 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 18,000 | 35% | 25% | 36% | 4% | +45.2 | -17.4 | -18.7 | -9.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 84% | 6% | 9% | 1% | -3.3 | -17.5 | +19.5 | +1.3 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 3,000 | 81% | 2% | 17% | 0% | -2.5 | +7.9 | -1.6 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 4% | 17% | 1% | -1.0 | +4.1 | -2.2 | -1.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 7,800 | 78% | 4% | 17% | 1% | -8.4 | +20.8 | -7.9 | -4.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 69% | 14% | 17% | 0% | -11.1 | -16.3 | +30.4 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 5,200 | 49% | 4% | 47% | 1% | +4.4 | -5.0 | -6.5 | +7.2 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 60% | 1% | 39% | 1% | -23.6 | -0.7 | +28.0 | -3.7 |