Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
2/29 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+60.7pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +31.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -14.5 | -6.7 | +22.8 | -1.7 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 7,700 from Sugawara Hiroe | 15% | 20% | 41% | 24% | +1.0 | +21.3 | -0.8 | -21.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,600 from Honda Tomohiro | 16% | 34% | 40% | 11% | +2.0 | -7.7 | +5.2 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 4,000 | 17% | 27% | 44% | 12% | +11.7 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -5.7 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 23% | 25% | 43% | 9% | +20.1 | +0.9 | -3.3 | -17.7 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 18,000 | 37% | 23% | 36% | 4% | +44.0 | -16.9 | -18.4 | -8.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 85% | 5% | 9% | 1% | -3.9 | -16.8 | +19.9 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 3,000 | 80% | 2% | 17% | 1% | -2.2 | +7.4 | -1.6 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 77% | 3% | 19% | 1% | -1.4 | +4.9 | -1.9 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 7,800 | 77% | 5% | 17% | 1% | -7.2 | +20.4 | -8.4 | -4.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 70% | 14% | 16% | 0% | -13.2 | -16.8 | +31.1 | -1.1 |
| South 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 5,200 | 47% | 4% | 49% | 1% | +5.8 | -4.3 | -7.5 | +6.0 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 60% | 1% | 39% | 0% | -23.8 | -0.7 | +28.0 | -3.5 |