Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

3/4 Game 1

Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +58.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Maki Asami 1st-place chance	Arisa Date 1st-place chance	Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance	Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance	Maki Asami Expected pt change	Arisa Date Expected pt change	Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change	Sayaka Okada Expected pt change
East 1	Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Maki Asami	26%	24%	26%	25%	-5.7	+0.9	+0.1	+4.7
East 2	Exhaustive draw	21%	25%	25%	29%	-3.3	+7.3	-2.2	-1.8
East 2, 1 honba	Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 1,000 from Maki Asami	20%	29%	24%	27%	-5.4	+0.6	+8.2	-3.4
East 3	Arisa Date tsumo 4,000	16%	29%	30%	25%	-2.0	+14.6	-8.0	-4.7
East 4	Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Maki Asami	15%	42%	22%	21%	-29.5	-4.9	-0.3	+34.7
East 4, 1 honba	Maki Asami ron 1,300 from Masatoshi Sarukawa	4%	32%	17%	47%	+2.4	+0.7	-4.3	+1.2
South 1	Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Arisa Date	4%	33%	15%	48%	-4.5	-10.2	0.0	+14.7
South 2	Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada	1%	20%	12%	68%	-1.6	-2.1	+42.7	-38.9
South 3	Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 12,000 from Maki Asami	1%	19%	57%	23%	-14.6	-6.2	+26.9	-6.1
South 3, 1 honba	Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 2,000 from Maki Asami	0%	3%	88%	8%	-2.2	-0.9	+2.6	+0.5
South 3, 2 honba	Arisa Date ron 16,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa	0%	3%	90%	8%	+0.2	+60.4	-55.0	-5.6
South 4	Exhaustive draw	0%	87%	5%	8%	+0.8	-2.4	-1.6	+3.3
South 4, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	0%	83%	6%	11%	+1.4	-3.5	-1.2	+3.3
South 4, 2 honba	Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000	0%	78%	9%	14%	-3.6	-34.3	+58.9	-21.1

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)