Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/4 Game 1
Sarukawa Masatoshi finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Sarukawa Masatoshi's expected points by +59.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,300 from Asami Maki | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -5.2 | -0.3 | +0.8 | +4.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 21% | 25% | 26% | 28% | -1.2 | +9.0 | -3.5 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 1,000 from Asami Maki | 21% | 31% | 23% | 25% | -8.0 | -1.7 | +10.5 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 4,000 | 17% | 28% | 30% | 25% | -2.1 | +17.6 | -10.1 | -5.4 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Asami Maki | 14% | 44% | 20% | 21% | -29.0 | -6.9 | 0.0 | +36.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Asami Maki ron 1,300 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 4% | 33% | 18% | 46% | +3.4 | +2.2 | -4.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 5% | 34% | 15% | 47% | -4.9 | -12.2 | +0.9 | +16.2 |
| South 2 | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 1% | 19% | 12% | 68% | -2.3 | -1.7 | +43.8 | -39.8 |
| South 3 | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 12,000 from Asami Maki | 1% | 18% | 60% | 21% | -14.8 | -5.9 | +26.0 | -5.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 2,000 from Asami Maki | 0% | 4% | 89% | 8% | -2.3 | -0.6 | +2.8 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 16,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 0% | 2% | 90% | 7% | +0.5 | +60.2 | -55.0 | -5.7 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 88% | 6% | 7% | +0.3 | -3.8 | -1.4 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 81% | 8% | 12% | +2.1 | -2.5 | -2.6 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 77% | 8% | 15% | -3.8 | -34.2 | +59.6 | -21.6 |