Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/5 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +58.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -4.7 | -21.2 | 0.0 | +25.9 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko ron 5,200 from Honda Tomohiro | 20% | 12% | 23% | 45% | +14.2 | -15.2 | +0.2 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 28% | 6% | 22% | 45% | +26.8 | 0.0 | -2.5 | -24.3 |
| East 4 | Draw | 54% | 6% | 18% | 22% | -2.4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | +6.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 51% | 5% | 17% | 27% | -1.4 | -2.1 | -3.7 | +7.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 50% | 5% | 14% | 32% | +3.6 | +15.1 | +0.6 | -19.2 |
| South 1 | Draw | 58% | 8% | 16% | 18% | -2.3 | +0.2 | -2.9 | +5.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 56% | 8% | 14% | 22% | -0.8 | -23.7 | +31.5 | -7.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 53% | 1% | 33% | 14% | +1.0 | -2.2 | -4.6 | +5.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 57% | 0% | 26% | 18% | -14.2 | +1.4 | +11.9 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 31% | 0% | 48% | 21% | -44.5 | +1.2 | -15.6 | +58.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 1,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | +3.7 | -4.2 | -0.6 | +1.2 |