Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/5 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +59.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -6.7 | -22.6 | +1.3 | +28.0 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Tomohiro Honda | 19% | 11% | 23% | 46% | +15.4 | -14.4 | -1.8 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 27% | 6% | 21% | 46% | +28.6 | -1.1 | -2.3 | -25.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 5% | 16% | 21% | -2.9 | -2.1 | -3.1 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 4% | 14% | 28% | -3.8 | -1.0 | +0.3 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 50% | 4% | 14% | 32% | +2.8 | +15.5 | -0.3 | -18.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 9% | 16% | 19% | -3.3 | +1.5 | -2.9 | +4.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 52% | 10% | 16% | 23% | +1.4 | -24.8 | +28.5 | -5.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 1% | 30% | 16% | +1.8 | -2.1 | -2.0 | +2.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 0% | 25% | 17% | -15.5 | +1.5 | +12.4 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 31% | 0% | 50% | 19% | -44.3 | +1.0 | -16.6 | +59.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 0% | 6% | 94% | +3.9 | -4.4 | -0.7 | +1.1 |