Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/5 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+110.5pt). The game was decided in East 3: Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Kobayashi Go, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +45.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -1.3 | -1.9 | -0.5 | +3.7 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 24% | 23% | 25% | 28% | +22.6 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -20.2 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 18,000 from Kobayashi Go | 40% | 20% | 24% | 16% | -2.9 | -42.8 | +45.4 | +0.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 29% | 2% | 59% | 11% | -3.1 | +5.0 | +23.4 | -25.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 1% | 81% | 2% | -3.0 | -3.4 | -1.7 | +8.0 |
| East 4 | Ooi Takaharu ron 2,900 from Kobayashi Go | 13% | 2% | 83% | 3% | -0.1 | -7.6 | -0.8 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Kobayashi Go | 14% | 1% | 82% | 4% | -2.4 | -17.5 | -1.5 | +21.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 7,800 | 13% | 0% | 78% | 9% | -8.0 | -2.8 | -6.7 | +17.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 0% | 70% | 19% | +20.3 | -3.1 | -4.1 | -13.2 |
| South 1 | Kobayashi Go tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 0% | 65% | 11% | -8.6 | +5.5 | +4.1 | -1.1 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Kobayashi Go | 14% | 0% | 75% | 10% | +33.7 | -13.5 | -13.1 | -7.1 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 51% | 0% | 44% | 5% | -26.8 | -6.3 | +40.9 | -7.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -4.1 | -4.4 | +14.5 | -6.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -4.0 | +0.7 | +2.8 | +0.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 3,900 from Ooi Takaharu | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.2 | +5.0 | -0.2 | -6.0 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.8 | -1.6 | +8.4 | -5.9 |