Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/5 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+110.5pt). The game was decided in East 3: Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +42.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 27% | 23% | 26% | 24% | -5.8 | +2.9 | -1.6 | +4.5 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 22% | 26% | 24% | 28% | +22.5 | -2.8 | +0.6 | -20.3 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 18,000 from Go Kobayashi | 38% | 21% | 24% | 17% | -0.8 | -41.7 | +42.4 | +0.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 29% | 3% | 57% | 11% | -4.8 | +3.1 | +26.8 | -25.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 2% | 82% | 2% | -1.9 | -2.1 | -3.1 | +7.1 |
| East 4 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,900 from Go Kobayashi | 13% | 2% | 82% | 3% | -0.5 | -9.3 | +0.6 | +9.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 12% | 1% | 83% | 4% | -2.4 | -17.4 | -4.4 | +24.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 0% | 76% | 11% | -7.6 | -3.5 | -5.7 | +16.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 0% | 68% | 21% | +21.1 | -2.0 | -3.7 | -15.3 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 0% | 65% | 11% | -8.2 | +4.8 | +3.2 | +0.3 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Go Kobayashi | 16% | 0% | 72% | 11% | +32.9 | -13.3 | -11.8 | -7.8 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 50% | 0% | 44% | 6% | -26.0 | -5.9 | +40.5 | -8.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 96% | 1% | -4.4 | -4.3 | +14.5 | -5.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -4.1 | +0.1 | +3.5 | +0.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +1.1 | +5.2 | -0.8 | -5.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.7 | -1.5 | +8.8 | -6.5 |