Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/8 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 18,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +56.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +2.1 | -2.2 | +2.0 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 27% | 23% | 27% | 24% | -3.4 | -0.5 | +13.8 | -9.9 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 23% | 22% | 37% | 18% | -9.5 | -1.6 | +1.9 | +9.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 20% | 40% | 23% | -1.9 | +5.6 | -1.3 | -2.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 17% | 23% | 38% | 21% | -8.7 | -7.3 | -9.9 | +26.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 18% | 28% | 42% | +12.6 | -4.6 | -1.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 17% | 27% | 36% | -19.7 | -12.2 | +42.6 | -10.7 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 18,000 | 3% | 7% | 74% | 16% | -14.9 | +56.1 | -23.2 | -18.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 48% | 39% | 11% | +2.8 | +1.1 | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 53% | 37% | 9% | -10.9 | -15.3 | -30.5 | +56.7 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 27% | 9% | 64% | -4.1 | +37.0 | -7.5 | -25.4 |