Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/11 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+67.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +45.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Asami Maki Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 23% | 25% | 27% | -3.3 | -0.2 | +6.2 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 22% | 24% | 29% | 25% | -8.8 | +24.1 | -7.4 | -7.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 5,200 from Tojyo Rio | 16% | 42% | 22% | 19% | +0.6 | -2.7 | +16.8 | -14.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 16% | 38% | 34% | 12% | +5.0 | -1.3 | -5.4 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 40% | 29% | 12% | -14.2 | -11.5 | -14.3 | +40.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Asami Maki | 12% | 29% | 20% | 40% | -28.6 | -3.9 | -0.7 | +33.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 2% | 16% | 13% | 69% | -0.7 | +35.8 | -27.8 | -7.3 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 45% | 3% | 52% | -10.5 | -1.5 | +15.2 | -3.2 |
| South 2 | Tojyo Rio ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 0% | 44% | 5% | 51% | -0.2 | -5.9 | -3.3 | +9.4 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 32% | 3% | 65% | -0.6 | +4.4 | +1.7 | -5.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 41% | 4% | 55% | -1.5 | -8.4 | -5.1 | +14.9 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 18% | 0% | 82% | -2.6 | -5.7 | -0.9 | +9.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93% | -2.2 | +45.9 | -1.4 | -42.4 |