Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/11 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+67.5pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -1.8 | -4.9 | +6.3 | +0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 7,800 | 23% | 24% | 29% | 24% | -7.7 | +26.2 | -11.9 | -6.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 5,200 from Rio Tojyo | 18% | 43% | 20% | 19% | -2.0 | -2.7 | +19.1 | -14.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 40% | 33% | 14% | +5.0 | -3.6 | -4.3 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 37% | 29% | 15% | -12.5 | -11.0 | -12.9 | +36.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Maki Asami | 13% | 28% | 21% | 38% | -29.0 | -3.0 | -0.3 | +32.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 2% | 18% | 12% | 68% | -0.2 | +34.9 | -28.7 | -6.0 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 43% | 3% | 53% | -11.2 | -2.4 | +15.3 | -1.8 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 42% | 5% | 53% | +0.2 | -4.4 | -4.1 | +8.4 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 32% | 2% | 65% | -0.9 | +3.9 | +3.3 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 40% | 5% | 55% | -1.8 | -8.6 | -5.6 | +16.0 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 3,900 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 83% | -2.2 | -4.8 | -1.2 | +8.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 92% | -2.3 | +45.6 | -1.3 | -42.0 |