Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/12 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +45.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 0.0 | +8.9 | -10.9 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 31% | 19% | 26% | +3.3 | -5.8 | +6.6 | -4.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 26% | 23% | 24% | -7.5 | -5.8 | -13.1 | +26.5 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 21% | 14% | 45% | -10.6 | -3.6 | +27.2 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000 | 14% | 21% | 31% | 34% | -22.0 | -13.1 | +45.8 | -10.7 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 6% | 82% | 12% | +20.5 | -16.0 | +2.2 | -6.6 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 2% | 1% | 89% | 9% | -28.3 | +30.5 | -0.2 | -1.9 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 2% | 91% | 7% | -2.2 | -8.5 | -2.9 | +13.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 87% | 11% | +6.4 | -5.9 | +4.1 | -4.6 |