Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/12 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+59.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 16,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +46.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 3,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 24% | 26% | 24% | 27% | -0.2 | +7.6 | -8.1 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 30% | 20% | 27% | +4.3 | -7.0 | +5.3 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -6.7 | -5.8 | -13.2 | +25.7 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 20% | 14% | 45% | -10.6 | -3.7 | +27.2 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 16,000 | 15% | 19% | 31% | 35% | -22.1 | -12.1 | +46.2 | -11.9 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 5% | 81% | 12% | +21.5 | -15.9 | +0.4 | -6.0 |
| South 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 3% | 1% | 86% | 9% | -29.6 | +31.2 | +1.5 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 1% | 92% | 7% | -2.5 | -8.8 | -3.0 | +14.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 88% | 11% | +6.2 | -5.9 | +3.9 | -4.2 |