Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

3/14 Game 1

Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+71.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +33.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Sasaki Hisato● Matsugase Takaya● Sonoda Ken● Setokuma Naoki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Sasaki● Matsugase● Sonoda● Setokuma
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
East 1Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken25%25%26%25%+33.6+1.0-32.6-2.0
East 1, 1 honbaDraw49%22%8%21%+0.3-3.8+1.1+2.5
East 1, 2 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 12,00050%20%8%22%+30.3-11.5-8.3-10.6
East 1, 3 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Matsugase Takaya78%9%4%10%-0.8-3.9-0.4+5.1
East 2Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,00079%7%3%11%-9.3+26.4-7.5-9.6
East 2, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken68%19%3%10%+4.5-4.4-4.1+4.0
East 3Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki74%14%2%10%+2.0+3.6-3.4-2.2
East 4Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,00077%14%1%8%-8.9+25.1-3.4-12.7
South 1Draw61%34%1%4%+0.4+1.9-4.2+1.9
South 1, 1 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki62%35%0%3%+23.4-7.8+3.5-19.1
South 1, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato84%15%0%0%-9.2+1.5+9.0-1.3
South 2Draw80%19%0%1%+1.3+0.90.0-2.2
South 2, 1 honbaSasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Matsugase Takaya80%19%1%1%+7.7-6.8-2.6+1.8
South 3Matsugase Takaya tsumo 5,20092%7%0%0%-1.3+6.9-6.3+0.6
South 4Setokuma Naoki tsumo 7,80091%9%0%0%-2.3-3.0-6.7+12.0
South 4, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 7,80091%8%0%0%-3.7-3.1-4.3+11.1
South 4, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya89%9%0%2%+4.5-10.8+9.3-2.9

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)