Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/14 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+71.8pt). The game was decided in East 1: Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +33.8 | +0.3 | -31.8 | -2.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 21% | 8% | 19% | 0.0 | -3.5 | -2.7 | +6.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 19% | 7% | 23% | +28.2 | -10.1 | -6.0 | -12.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 77% | 9% | 4% | 10% | -0.8 | -2.9 | +0.8 | +2.9 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 77% | 9% | 4% | 10% | -7.4 | +24.4 | -9.1 | -7.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 68% | 20% | 3% | 9% | +2.5 | -2.8 | -5.0 | +5.3 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 73% | 15% | 2% | 11% | +3.3 | +0.4 | -2.1 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 78% | 13% | 1% | 8% | -10.5 | +30.0 | -3.6 | -15.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 39% | 1% | 2% | +1.7 | -1.4 | -3.5 | +3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 61% | 36% | 0% | 4% | +23.5 | -7.5 | +2.6 | -18.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 84% | 15% | 0% | 1% | -8.8 | +1.2 | +10.0 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 81% | 18% | 0% | 1% | -0.1 | +2.4 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 78% | 21% | 0% | 1% | +9.5 | -8.5 | -1.2 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 93% | 6% | 0% | 0% | -1.4 | +6.6 | -7.0 | +1.9 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 92% | 8% | 0% | 0% | -3.2 | -2.7 | -6.0 | +12.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 7,800 | 91% | 8% | 0% | 1% | -2.2 | -3.4 | -4.3 | +9.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 92% | 7% | 0% | 1% | +3.2 | -10.4 | +9.2 | -2.0 |