Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/18 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+74.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +36.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +2.2 | -3.5 | -4.1 | +5.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 23% | 23% | 27% | -17.5 | +36.3 | -10.4 | -8.3 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Hiroe Sugawara | 15% | 50% | 15% | 20% | +1.2 | -0.6 | +15.0 | -15.6 |
| East 3 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 50% | 22% | 13% | -0.8 | +2.3 | -23.3 | +21.9 |
| East 4 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 52% | 10% | 24% | -0.9 | +0.9 | -4.8 | +4.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 13% | 54% | 8% | 25% | +1.0 | -6.7 | -23.0 | +28.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 11% | 39% | 2% | 48% | -0.8 | +11.4 | -0.7 | -9.9 |
| South 1 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 9% | 53% | 2% | 36% | -4.8 | -3.7 | -10.6 | +19.1 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 2% | 40% | 1% | 57% | +1.3 | +34.5 | -0.1 | -35.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 90% | 0% | 9% | -1.4 | -1.8 | +0.7 | +2.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 90% | 1% | 9% | -1.0 | +10.6 | -8.9 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -1.5 | -2.0 | -0.8 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2.1 | +9.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 91% | 0% | 9% | -4.0 | -29.9 | -4.5 | +38.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 30% | 0% | 70% | +0.2 | +32.0 | -2.7 | -29.5 |