Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/19 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+56.8pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +31.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | -12.2 | -1.7 | +18.0 | -4.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 23% | 37% | 22% | +4.4 | +1.9 | -4.1 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 25% | 34% | 21% | +20.1 | -8.6 | -6.6 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 36% | 18% | 28% | 18% | +8.2 | +0.2 | -11.6 | +3.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 18% | 18% | 20% | -1.2 | -4.2 | -0.7 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,700 | 43% | 14% | 19% | 24% | +10.1 | -2.8 | -2.1 | -5.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 53% | 14% | 15% | 18% | +1.1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 13% | 14% | 17% | -4.1 | -19.6 | -7.7 | +31.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 2% | 10% | 39% | +8.0 | -2.9 | -5.9 | +0.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,500 from Aki Nikaido | 64% | 1% | 1% | 34% | -11.9 | -5.6 | +1.6 | +15.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 0% | 1% | 65% | -6.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | +8.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 0% | 1% | 78% | -5.9 | -3.2 | +2.0 | +7.2 |