Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/19 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+65.0pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +26.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -2.1 | +20.7 | -18.9 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 40% | 13% | 25% | +1.1 | -5.2 | +6.1 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 36% | 16% | 25% | -4.3 | +0.5 | +4.8 | -1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 37% | 17% | 24% | +26.4 | -6.1 | -12.3 | -8.0 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 41% | 30% | 11% | 19% | -2.2 | -10.9 | +0.2 | +12.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 22% | 12% | 28% | +26.1 | -6.6 | -4.0 | -15.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 14% | 7% | 12% | +6.5 | -1.3 | -2.5 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 75% | 11% | 5% | 9% | -3.3 | -3.2 | -18.2 | +24.6 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 71% | 8% | 2% | 18% | +18.0 | -10.7 | -4.0 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 92% | 0% | 1% | 7% | +2.1 | +17.8 | -4.7 | -15.2 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -8.1 | -16.8 | -5.5 | +30.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 3,000 | 85% | 0% | 0% | 15% | -3.7 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +6.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori ron 16,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 79% | 0% | 0% | 21% | +8.3 | -37.0 | +39.1 | -10.5 |