Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/21 Game 1
Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+57.9pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +44.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -10.8 | -2.4 | +12.6 | +0.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 24% | 34% | 25% | -3.4 | +3.6 | -2.7 | +2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,800 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 15% | 26% | 33% | 27% | -0.3 | +17.6 | -18.7 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 39% | 20% | 27% | +14.3 | -5.6 | -5.1 | -3.6 |
| East 3 | Maki Asami tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 35% | 17% | 26% | +6.7 | +0.9 | -5.7 | -2.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 35% | 13% | 24% | -1.5 | +0.7 | -1.2 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 27% | 37% | 12% | 24% | -4.3 | -0.2 | +10.3 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Maki Asami ron 1,500 from Tomohiro Honda | 24% | 37% | 17% | 22% | +6.2 | -6.6 | -0.2 | +0.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Maki Asami | 30% | 30% | 18% | 21% | -32.9 | +0.7 | -0.3 | +32.4 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 7% | 27% | 16% | 51% | -3.3 | -30.2 | +27.6 | +5.9 |
| South 3 | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,000 from Maki Asami | 5% | 7% | 31% | 58% | -8.3 | -0.5 | -3.5 | +12.3 |
| South 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 3% | 17% | 79% | -8.4 | -0.5 | +44.8 | -35.9 |