Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

3/22 Game 2

Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+99.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +41.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Nakabayashi Kei● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Takamiya Mari● Okada Sayaka0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Nakabayashi● Matsumoto● Takamiya● Okada
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMatsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
East 1Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,50028%23%25%23%-5.8+1.2-2.0+6.6
East 2Draw23%24%24%29%+1.9+3.1-2.6-2.4
East 2, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro24%27%22%27%-32.9-6.8-2.1+41.9
East 3Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro5%15%17%62%-9.3+11.9-3.3+0.7
East 4Draw3%21%12%64%+4.0-4.5-1.8+2.3
East 4, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,5004%18%12%66%-0.6-3.5-4.0+8.1
East 4, 2 honbaNakabayashi Kei ron 24,000 from Takamiya Mari3%13%8%76%+7.2-49.9+7.7+35.0
East 4, 3 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,0000%0%2%98%-4.7-3.8-5.4+13.9
East 4, 4 honbaDraw0%0%0%100%-0.5-1.6-1.5+3.6
East 4, 5 honbaOkada Sayaka tsumo 8,0000%0%0%100%-5.4-4.6+15.9-6.0
South 1Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka0%0%1%99%-2.4+5.4-3.5+0.5
South 2Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,0000%0%1%100%-13.0+25.0-8.5-3.6
South 2, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,1000%0%0%100%-1.2-2.8+2.5+1.6
South 3Draw0%0%0%100%-0.4+3.0-3.9+1.3
South 4, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka tsumo 3,2000%0%0%100%-3.6-3.1+9.5-2.8

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)