Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/22 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+99.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +41.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,500 | 28% | 23% | 25% | 23% | -5.8 | +1.2 | -2.0 | +6.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 24% | 24% | 29% | +1.9 | +3.1 | -2.6 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 24% | 27% | 22% | 27% | -32.9 | -6.8 | -2.1 | +41.9 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 5% | 15% | 17% | 62% | -9.3 | +11.9 | -3.3 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 3% | 21% | 12% | 64% | +4.0 | -4.5 | -1.8 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,500 | 4% | 18% | 12% | 66% | -0.6 | -3.5 | -4.0 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 24,000 from Takamiya Mari | 3% | 13% | 8% | 76% | +7.2 | -49.9 | +7.7 | +35.0 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | -4.7 | -3.8 | -5.4 | +13.9 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | +3.6 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -5.4 | -4.6 | +15.9 | -6.0 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -2.4 | +5.4 | -3.5 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 100% | -13.0 | +25.0 | -8.5 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.2 | -2.8 | +2.5 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.4 | +3.0 | -3.9 | +1.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 3,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.6 | -3.1 | +9.5 | -2.8 |