Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/22 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+99.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +41.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,500 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.2 | -2.0 | +1.3 | +5.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 24% | 26% | 29% | +2.2 | +3.2 | -2.9 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 23% | 25% | 24% | 28% | -32.1 | -6.8 | -2.7 | +41.7 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 14% | 17% | 64% | -9.3 | +12.8 | -3.8 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 22% | 12% | 63% | +5.4 | -5.4 | -2.4 | +2.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,500 | 4% | 17% | 11% | 67% | -1.6 | -5.6 | -1.5 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 24,000 from Mari Takamiya | 3% | 12% | 9% | 76% | +8.2 | -47.7 | +4.9 | +34.7 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 98% | -5.3 | -3.7 | -4.6 | +13.5 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0.0 | -2.3 | -0.8 | +3.1 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -5.9 | -3.9 | +14.9 | -5.1 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% | -2.6 | +4.9 | -3.0 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -12.4 | +23.7 | -7.3 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.3 | -1.2 | +1.0 | +1.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.9 | +2.9 | -3.3 | +1.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.3 | -2.8 | +9.2 | -3.1 |