Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/25 Game 2
Taro Suzuki finished 1st (+58.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000, which moved Taro Suzuki's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -4.5 | -1.7 | +1.7 | +4.5 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada | 21% | 25% | 26% | 29% | +2.4 | +7.0 | -9.0 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 29% | 20% | 28% | +8.1 | -6.0 | -3.2 | +1.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 23% | 19% | 29% | -4.9 | -2.0 | +3.2 | +3.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,300 from Taro Suzuki | 25% | 23% | 20% | 32% | +9.8 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800 | 33% | 19% | 17% | 32% | -8.1 | -10.9 | -5.6 | +24.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 24% | 12% | 12% | 53% | +0.2 | +25.9 | -24.1 | -2.0 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 22% | 24% | 4% | 50% | -25.8 | +0.8 | +17.7 | +7.2 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 23% | 10% | 61% | -0.5 | +4.6 | -6.4 | +2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 5% | 25% | 7% | 63% | -6.8 | +13.0 | -2.8 | -3.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 3% | 37% | 5% | 55% | -6.2 | -5.7 | +9.8 | +2.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 30% | 7% | 61% | -3.4 | -7.9 | +5.0 | +6.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 20% | 8% | 71% | -3.3 | -1.7 | +8.7 | -3.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 1% | 20% | 12% | 67% | +28.7 | +17.9 | -14.4 | -32.2 |
| South 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 56% | 8% | 22% | -5.4 | +30.1 | -16.5 | -8.2 |