Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/26 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+67.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +44.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 18,000 from Rio Tojyo | 27% | 26% | 25% | 22% | +41.3 | -1.7 | -41.9 | +2.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 59% | 18% | 5% | 19% | -7.1 | +12.4 | -2.4 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Rio Tojyo | 51% | 26% | 5% | 18% | -2.5 | +12.8 | -10.3 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 24,000 | 45% | 36% | 2% | 17% | -24.6 | +50.0 | -8.3 | -17.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 11% | 84% | 1% | 4% | -0.1 | -6.6 | -1.7 | +8.4 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 80% | 1% | 7% | +5.3 | -0.6 | -4.1 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 80% | 0% | 5% | 0.0 | +5.3 | -1.0 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 11% | 86% | 0% | 3% | -5.5 | -12.3 | -0.2 | +18.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 78% | 1% | 10% | +5.1 | -1.4 | +0.6 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 76% | 1% | 9% | +44.6 | -29.9 | -5.2 | -9.5 |
| South 3 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 74% | 23% | 0% | 4% | +7.0 | -12.6 | -1.6 | +7.2 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 90% | 5% | 0% | 5% | +2.2 | -0.6 | +8.7 | -10.3 |