Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/26 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+67.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 18,000 from Tojyo Rio | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | +40.5 | -2.3 | -38.1 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 57% | 18% | 5% | 21% | -5.8 | +13.2 | -3.3 | -4.1 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Tojyo Rio | 52% | 25% | 5% | 18% | -4.0 | +14.1 | -9.7 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 24,000 | 44% | 36% | 3% | 17% | -24.5 | +50.3 | -9.7 | -16.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Suzuki Daisuke ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 10% | 85% | 0% | 5% | +2.3 | -7.2 | -1.3 | +6.2 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,000 | 13% | 80% | 1% | 6% | +4.0 | +0.5 | -4.5 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 14% | 80% | 0% | 6% | -0.8 | +5.3 | +0.2 | -4.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Suzuki Daisuke ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 10% | 88% | 0% | 2% | -4.4 | -14.8 | -1.2 | +20.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 12% | 76% | 0% | 11% | +5.5 | +0.4 | +0.7 | -6.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 75% | 0% | 9% | +44.1 | -30.4 | -4.9 | -8.8 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Daisuke ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 75% | 21% | 0% | 4% | +5.8 | -11.9 | -1.4 | +7.5 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000 | 89% | 6% | 0% | 5% | +2.9 | -0.9 | +8.6 | -10.6 |