Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/26 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+82.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +29.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 4,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +14.8 | -0.5 | -12.1 | -2.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 2,600 from Kazunori Takizawa | 36% | 23% | 18% | 23% | -1.3 | +8.3 | -0.9 | -6.1 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 35% | 28% | 17% | 20% | +24.4 | -1.1 | -21.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 22% | 7% | 14% | +3.0 | -3.1 | +4.6 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 19% | 7% | 13% | +5.1 | -2.9 | +1.4 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 7,800 | 67% | 16% | 7% | 10% | -7.1 | -8.0 | +21.0 | -5.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 60% | 15% | 15% | 11% | +1.7 | +1.5 | -11.9 | +8.7 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 15% | 9% | 14% | -10.9 | -13.0 | -10.0 | +34.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 10% | 7% | 34% | -1.2 | +5.5 | -1.2 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 49% | 13% | 8% | 31% | +29.9 | -27.5 | +3.2 | -5.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 80% | 2% | 4% | 14% | -0.3 | +3.8 | -4.0 | +0.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 83% | 2% | 3% | 13% | -1.2 | +7.6 | -4.5 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 82% | 3% | 2% | 13% | +14.0 | -10.2 | -1.0 | -2.9 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,500 | 95% | 0% | 1% | 4% | -1.0 | -2.1 | +3.4 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 94% | 0% | 1% | 5% | +1.2 | +9.6 | -13.1 | +2.3 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 97% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +9.5 | +4.8 | -12.7 | -1.6 |