Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/26 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+82.1pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +28.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 4,800 from Kurosawa Saki | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +15.0 | -0.2 | -12.9 | -1.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 2,600 from Takizawa Kazunori | 36% | 24% | 17% | 23% | +0.3 | +10.1 | -0.3 | -10.1 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 35% | 32% | 16% | 17% | +23.0 | -6.1 | -16.3 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 56% | 22% | 8% | 14% | +3.6 | -1.4 | +0.2 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 60% | 20% | 8% | 13% | +3.5 | -2.8 | +4.1 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 7,800 | 63% | 17% | 9% | 10% | -5.5 | -8.1 | +18.6 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 59% | 15% | 17% | 9% | +1.3 | +2.2 | -11.9 | +8.4 |
| East 4 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 15% | 10% | 13% | -9.5 | -15.0 | -10.1 | +34.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 50% | 9% | 7% | 34% | -0.3 | +6.1 | -1.8 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 50% | 12% | 7% | 31% | +28.8 | -27.4 | +2.8 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 2,000 | 80% | 2% | 3% | 14% | -1.7 | +3.5 | -1.8 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 82% | 2% | 3% | 14% | -1.5 | +7.2 | -4.5 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 3% | 3% | 14% | +14.6 | -9.5 | -1.8 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 1,500 | 94% | 0% | 1% | 5% | +0.3 | -1.7 | +4.1 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki | 96% | 0% | 1% | 4% | +0.1 | +9.1 | -13.8 | +4.6 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +9.9 | +5.2 | -12.9 | -2.2 |