Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/29 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+80.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +41.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +31.7 | -8.3 | -11.8 | -11.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 49% | 18% | 17% | 17% | -2.2 | -0.3 | +20.6 | -18.1 |
| East 2 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 17% | 27% | 9% | -3.2 | -13.8 | -3.8 | +20.9 |
| East 3 | Maki Asami tsumo 18,000 | 45% | 10% | 28% | 18% | -19.2 | -12.4 | +44.7 | -13.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 2,900 from Shingo Hori | 20% | 4% | 68% | 9% | -0.5 | -6.0 | +6.1 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 3% | 73% | 8% | -2.2 | -1.3 | +4.8 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 14% | 2% | 77% | 7% | +14.8 | -2.6 | -8.1 | -4.0 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 24% | 2% | 68% | 6% | +1.1 | +2.4 | +3.7 | -7.3 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 21% | 1% | 75% | 3% | +41.3 | -6.1 | -26.8 | -8.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 72% | 1% | 26% | 1% | +10.0 | -0.5 | -9.1 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 5,200 | 85% | 1% | 14% | 1% | -2.9 | +10.2 | -1.8 | -5.4 |
| South 2 | Maki Asami ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 86% | 1% | 13% | 1% | -2.1 | -14.3 | +13.7 | +2.7 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,700 | 80% | 0% | 20% | 0% | +11.2 | -2.1 | -10.2 | +1.1 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Maki Asami | 97% | 0% | 3% | 0% | +3.3 | -5.7 | -2.2 | +4.5 |