Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/29 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+92.6pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +32.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -11.4 | -4.5 | +20.5 | -4.6 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 18% | 20% | 40% | 22% | +22.0 | -23.4 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Maki Asami | 31% | 9% | 40% | 20% | -1.5 | -0.3 | +22.7 | -20.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 6% | 61% | 10% | +32.7 | -7.1 | -19.7 | -5.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 3% | 33% | 6% | +0.8 | +7.1 | +2.1 | -9.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 58% | 5% | 34% | 3% | +16.7 | -4.8 | -8.3 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000 | 78% | 3% | 18% | 2% | +26.5 | -7.6 | -13.0 | -5.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 97% | 1% | 3% | 0% | +14.5 | -4.0 | -5.9 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1.8 | +0.8 | +9.0 | -8.0 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 6,000 | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1.6 | +10.2 | -3.6 | -5.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 2,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | +0.6 | -5.0 | +1.4 | +3.0 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.1 | -18.4 | +12.9 | +5.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -4.8 | +12.5 | -1.1 | -6.6 |
| South 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.0 | +4.7 | +0.8 | -4.5 |