Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
3/29 Game 2
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+92.6pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +32.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Asami Maki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Asami Maki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 26% | 26% | 25% | -11.3 | -5.2 | +20.6 | -4.1 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 16% | 21% | 41% | 23% | +21.3 | -20.9 | +0.7 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 7,700 from Asami Maki | 29% | 10% | 40% | 21% | -0.4 | -1.0 | +22.3 | -20.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 7% | 62% | 8% | +32.6 | -6.7 | -20.3 | -5.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 56% | 5% | 33% | 6% | +3.0 | +3.1 | +2.6 | -8.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 6,000 | 60% | 4% | 33% | 3% | +15.9 | -3.6 | -9.1 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 18,000 | 78% | 2% | 18% | 2% | +26.8 | -6.2 | -13.2 | -7.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 97% | 0% | 3% | 0% | +13.8 | -3.7 | -5.7 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Asami Maki | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1.1 | +0.2 | +8.8 | -7.9 |
| South 2 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 6,000 | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1.8 | +9.9 | -4.1 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Asami Maki ron 2,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 99% | 0% | 1% | 0% | +0.5 | -5.8 | +2.7 | +2.5 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 100% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -0.8 | -18.5 | +13.2 | +6.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 98% | 0% | 2% | 0% | -4.0 | +13.5 | -1.6 | -8.0 |
| South 4 | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.2 | +4.7 | +0.5 | -3.9 |