Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/18 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 16,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +76.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -8.8 | +14.2 | -3.9 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,400 | 19% | 35% | 22% | 24% | +19.8 | -10.4 | -4.8 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 2,000 | 34% | 25% | 20% | 22% | -1.5 | -0.5 | -5.2 | +7.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 33% | 27% | 15% | 26% | +3.7 | -4.3 | -3.6 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 35% | 23% | 13% | 29% | -0.1 | +0.6 | +7.6 | -8.1 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Katsumata Kenji | 36% | 24% | 18% | 23% | +18.0 | -18.3 | +0.8 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 54% | 11% | 16% | 20% | -4.9 | -27.9 | -0.9 | +33.7 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 2,000 | 42% | 3% | 11% | 45% | +9.9 | -5.9 | -2.2 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 2,000 | 55% | 0% | 7% | 38% | -0.5 | -0.8 | -6.4 | +7.6 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 16,000 | 53% | 0% | 1% | 47% | -24.3 | -4.5 | +76.0 | -47.2 |