Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/18 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+56.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 16,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +76.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -6.3 | +11.1 | -5.9 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,400 | 19% | 33% | 23% | 26% | +18.9 | -8.0 | -4.6 | -6.3 |
| East 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 27% | 19% | 21% | +0.7 | -1.6 | -6.1 | +7.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 25% | 16% | 25% | +1.7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | +5.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 34% | 24% | 12% | 30% | +1.4 | -1.4 | +11.4 | -11.4 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Kenji Katsumata | 38% | 24% | 18% | 21% | +17.7 | -17.7 | -1.7 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 55% | 11% | 14% | 20% | -6.3 | -27.9 | -0.2 | +34.4 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 2,000 | 41% | 2% | 11% | 46% | +9.9 | -6.0 | -2.2 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 54% | 0% | 8% | 38% | 0.0 | -1.1 | -6.7 | +7.9 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 16,000 | 51% | 0% | 1% | 48% | -24.1 | -4.4 | +76.4 | -47.9 |