Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/18 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +51.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +10.4 | -5.1 | -5.1 | -0.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 31% | 23% | 22% | 24% | -3.9 | +11.8 | +2.4 | -10.3 |
| East 2 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 30% | 23% | 19% | +34.9 | -18.7 | -6.4 | -9.8 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 18,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 60% | 13% | 16% | 11% | -49.5 | +2.1 | +46.9 | +0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 16% | 57% | 12% | -3.7 | -4.3 | +8.4 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 12% | 67% | 10% | +38.2 | -8.0 | -19.6 | -10.5 |
| East 4 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 10% | 42% | 8% | +22.2 | -3.5 | -7.0 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 65% | 5% | 28% | 2% | -22.6 | -3.0 | +6.4 | +19.2 |
| South 2 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 43% | 8% | 41% | 8% | +13.0 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -0.7 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,500 | 61% | 2% | 30% | 7% | -2.9 | -0.3 | +5.5 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 55% | 1% | 37% | 6% | +2.5 | -9.8 | -9.1 | +16.4 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 65% | 0% | 23% | 12% | -6.5 | -4.3 | -13.2 | +24.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Daisuke Suzuki | 57% | 0% | 17% | 26% | -30.9 | -0.2 | +1.2 | +29.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 14% | 0% | 14% | 72% | -21.8 | -0.6 | +51.8 | -29.5 |