Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/19 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+52.8pt). The game was decided in South 2: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +39.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 25% | 26% | 26% | 23% | -5.1 | +24.7 | 0.0 | -19.6 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 20% | 44% | 23% | 14% | -14.5 | -0.6 | +16.2 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 42% | 33% | 12% | +4.7 | -7.6 | +0.5 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 37% | 35% | 13% | -7.2 | -4.2 | -11.3 | +22.7 |
| East 4 | Draw | 12% | 35% | 27% | 27% | -1.5 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +6.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 32% | 25% | 31% | -6.4 | -8.3 | +29.6 | -14.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 8% | 22% | 52% | 18% | +5.2 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 11% | 23% | 48% | 18% | -8.5 | -0.7 | +2.9 | +6.4 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 22% | 53% | 21% | -9.9 | +39.6 | -16.8 | -13.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 62% | 26% | 11% | +4.3 | +0.6 | -2.0 | -2.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 1% | 67% | 22% | 9% | +4.7 | +5.0 | -5.2 | -4.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 1% | 79% | 12% | 9% | +4.5 | -3.8 | -3.8 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Draw | 3% | 75% | 12% | 11% | +1.5 | -2.6 | -3.8 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from Daigo Hiroshi | 5% | 70% | 11% | 13% | +11.9 | +13.0 | +5.0 | -30.0 |