Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/19 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+52.8pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +40.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -4.0 | +24.9 | -1.7 | -19.2 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 20% | 44% | 23% | 14% | -14.1 | +0.6 | +16.0 | -2.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 43% | 33% | 13% | +2.6 | -7.4 | +1.1 | +3.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 37% | 36% | 15% | -5.2 | -4.5 | -12.4 | +22.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 35% | 25% | 28% | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.8 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 33% | 25% | 31% | -8.2 | -7.0 | +30.2 | -14.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 23% | 52% | 18% | +6.8 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 9% | 23% | 50% | 18% | -7.6 | -2.4 | +4.4 | +5.6 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 20% | 56% | 19% | -9.7 | +40.3 | -18.4 | -12.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 61% | 27% | 11% | +3.6 | +1.4 | -1.9 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 67% | 23% | 9% | +4.0 | +5.0 | -4.9 | -4.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 79% | 12% | 9% | +3.3 | -2.4 | -4.5 | +3.6 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 77% | 10% | 11% | +2.1 | -5.3 | -3.4 | +6.5 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Hiroshi Daigo | 4% | 69% | 11% | 16% | +13.3 | +14.0 | +4.8 | -32.1 |