Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/22 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+59.8pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 16,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +43.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 7,800 | 24% | 25% | 27% | 23% | +23.8 | -5.8 | -13.4 | -4.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 16,000 | 42% | 21% | 17% | 20% | -24.4 | -11.6 | +43.5 | -7.5 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 6,000 | 21% | 14% | 50% | 16% | -6.4 | +15.5 | -3.0 | -6.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 17% | 21% | 49% | 13% | +14.8 | -13.7 | +0.6 | -1.7 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 13% | 48% | 12% | -10.9 | -9.5 | +26.9 | -6.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 6% | 75% | 7% | -4.4 | -0.1 | +2.6 | +1.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 6% | 78% | 6% | -6.9 | -8.1 | +19.6 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 2% | 93% | 2% | -1.4 | +5.9 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Daisuke Suzuki | 3% | 2% | 93% | 2% | -8.7 | +0.7 | -0.8 | +8.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,800 from Daisuke Suzuki | 2% | 2% | 92% | 4% | -13.7 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +12.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 2% | 93% | 4% | -3.9 | +6.4 | +0.3 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 2,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 2% | 95% | 2% | +6.2 | +0.7 | -4.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 2% | 3% | 92% | 2% | -5.2 | -4.4 | -12.9 | +22.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 4% | 85% | 10% | +2.0 | +3.5 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 5% | 82% | 12% | -5.9 | +7.0 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 7% | 81% | 12% | +10.3 | -8.8 | +3.4 | -5.0 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 1% | 90% | 8% | -5.2 | -1.4 | -1.8 | +8.4 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 90% | 9% | -10.2 | +34.8 | +1.7 | -26.3 |