Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/25 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +46.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | -18.7 | -4.8 | +33.9 | -10.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 20% | 50% | 18% | -2.5 | +1.9 | -3.0 | +3.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 21% | 47% | 20% | +0.8 | -4.9 | +5.8 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Yu Suzuki ron 7,700 from Tomohiro Honda | 12% | 16% | 54% | 18% | -21.5 | -2.9 | +26.1 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 9% | 78% | 11% | +2.4 | -3.9 | +2.5 | -1.0 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 6% | 81% | 10% | -3.0 | +4.3 | -2.1 | +0.8 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 16,000 | 2% | 7% | 80% | 10% | +44.3 | -12.5 | -7.0 | -24.8 |
| South 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 15% | 6% | 76% | 3% | +13.4 | +0.5 | -1.0 | -12.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 22% | 5% | 71% | 1% | -6.7 | +24.2 | +0.5 | -18.0 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 12% | 72% | 1% | +0.3 | -11.8 | +1.5 | +10.0 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 4% | 81% | 1% | +46.2 | -7.4 | -33.0 | -5.9 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 84% | 0% | 15% | 1% | -0.6 | -21.7 | +0.5 | +21.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 0% | 17% | 1% | +2.2 | -4.5 | -3.0 | +5.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,600 from Tomohiro Honda | 85% | 0% | 13% | 2% | +3.4 | +17.3 | -3.8 | -16.9 |