Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/25 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +47.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Suzuki Yu 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Suzuki Yu Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Yu tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 27% | -19.5 | -7.0 | +35.6 | -9.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 11% | 19% | 52% | 18% | -1.7 | +2.9 | -3.7 | +2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 11% | 21% | 48% | 20% | +0.1 | -6.9 | +4.3 | +2.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Suzuki Yu ron 7,700 from Honda Tomohiro | 11% | 15% | 53% | 21% | -18.7 | -2.4 | +26.0 | -4.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 4% | 7% | 78% | 11% | +1.3 | -3.6 | +3.6 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Draw | 3% | 6% | 81% | 10% | -1.9 | +5.0 | -3.3 | +0.2 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 16,000 | 3% | 7% | 80% | 10% | +42.0 | -12.3 | -4.9 | -24.8 |
| South 1 | Honda Tomohiro ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 14% | 5% | 77% | 4% | +14.5 | +0.2 | -2.4 | -12.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 22% | 4% | 72% | 2% | -6.6 | +24.7 | -0.4 | -17.7 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 13% | 72% | 1% | -0.9 | -11.7 | +3.3 | +9.3 |
| South 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 4% | 83% | 1% | +47.6 | -8.4 | -34.1 | -5.1 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 84% | 0% | 16% | 1% | +0.6 | -21.1 | -0.9 | +21.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 85% | 0% | 13% | 2% | +0.5 | -5.1 | -1.1 | +5.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,600 from Honda Tomohiro | 84% | 0% | 14% | 2% | +4.0 | +17.8 | -4.2 | -17.6 |