Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/25 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+50.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +23.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -13.4 | -3.7 | +20.9 | -3.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 21% | 41% | 22% | -1.6 | +8.3 | -4.0 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Rio Tojyo | 16% | 26% | 37% | 22% | -2.0 | +15.9 | -13.3 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 14% | 39% | 26% | 21% | +1.7 | -24.1 | -3.8 | +26.1 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 16% | 19% | 24% | 41% | -3.9 | +13.8 | -9.6 | -0.2 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 29% | 17% | 42% | -3.1 | +15.7 | -3.3 | -9.3 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 11% | 44% | 14% | 31% | +14.9 | +0.1 | -13.7 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 43% | 9% | 29% | -10.8 | +1.7 | -1.9 | +11.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 44% | 8% | 38% | -3.1 | +8.4 | +0.8 | -6.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 7% | 55% | 8% | 29% | +17.2 | -15.8 | -4.9 | +3.5 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 19% | 37% | 7% | 37% | +3.5 | +8.4 | -8.9 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 18% | 52% | 2% | 29% | -41.9 | +23.3 | +25.3 | -6.7 |