Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/25 Game 2
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+50.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Tojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +22.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -11.6 | -7.4 | +23.9 | -4.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 17% | 20% | 43% | 21% | -3.0 | +10.7 | -4.2 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 5,800 from Tojyo Rio | 14% | 27% | 38% | 20% | +1.0 | +15.0 | -15.9 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 15% | 39% | 25% | 21% | +0.5 | -24.5 | -2.5 | +26.5 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 5,200 | 16% | 20% | 24% | 40% | -6.2 | +15.2 | -9.3 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 30% | 17% | 40% | -2.3 | +13.1 | -2.8 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio | 11% | 42% | 15% | 32% | +14.2 | +1.3 | -16.3 | +0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 17% | 44% | 8% | 32% | -9.4 | +0.9 | +1.4 | +7.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 10% | 44% | 10% | 36% | -3.9 | +10.1 | -2.4 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 6% | 56% | 7% | 30% | +17.9 | -18.7 | -3.1 | +3.9 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 19% | 35% | 8% | 39% | +2.8 | +11.5 | -9.5 | -4.8 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 53% | 1% | 27% | -42.0 | +22.4 | +25.7 | -6.0 |