Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/26 Game 2
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+71.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +67.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 27% | 25% | 24% | +5.5 | -3.1 | -4.3 | +1.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 24% | 22% | 24% | -13.1 | -8.5 | +27.7 | -6.1 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 6,000 | 18% | 18% | 43% | 21% | -6.6 | +18.5 | -4.9 | -6.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,000 | 15% | 30% | 39% | 16% | +8.5 | -5.0 | -2.0 | -1.5 |
| East 3 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 21% | 26% | 37% | 16% | -0.7 | -1.1 | -25.3 | +27.0 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000 | 21% | 25% | 19% | 36% | -15.6 | -17.6 | +67.2 | -34.0 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 7,800 | 5% | 7% | 82% | 6% | +22.7 | -7.7 | -6.2 | -8.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 14% | 7% | 75% | 4% | +13.8 | -12.0 | -1.7 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 22% | 4% | 70% | 4% | -9.3 | -0.5 | +9.7 | +0.1 |
| South 2 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 4,000 | 9% | 2% | 86% | 3% | -1.3 | -9.0 | +1.0 | +9.3 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 7,800 | 5% | 0% | 90% | 5% | -4.8 | -2.5 | +11.0 | -3.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -0.4 | -1.7 | -1.7 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | +5.9 | -1.8 | +0.6 | -4.7 |