Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/28 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+80.4pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | -14.9 | +22.7 | -3.9 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 15% | 43% | 21% | 21% | +1.4 | +26.0 | -0.7 | -26.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 8,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 12% | 67% | 15% | 7% | -1.0 | -23.2 | +24.5 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 14% | 43% | 34% | 8% | +8.8 | +3.8 | -10.4 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 47% | 27% | 7% | -2.4 | -4.0 | +3.8 | +2.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 45% | 30% | 8% | -11.5 | -15.3 | -12.2 | +39.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 32% | 23% | 30% | +2.8 | -1.3 | -3.7 | +2.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 32% | 22% | 30% | -9.9 | -12.5 | +44.0 | -21.6 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 17% | 62% | 12% | +33.7 | -12.6 | -10.4 | -10.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 28% | 13% | 50% | 10% | +34.5 | +0.5 | -9.1 | -26.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 61% | 8% | 29% | 2% | +1.5 | +34.4 | -34.0 | -1.8 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 16,000 from Taro Suzuki | 65% | 26% | 8% | 1% | +30.4 | -10.2 | -0.7 | -19.5 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 96% | 1% | 2% | 0% | +1.5 | +3.2 | -15.2 | +10.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | +2.8 | +1.0 | +2.0 | -5.8 |