Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/29 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +43.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.3 | -0.3 | +5.7 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 25% | 29% | 25% | -1.0 | +0.5 | -4.0 | +4.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 25% | 28% | 27% | +29.9 | -14.2 | -6.2 | -9.5 |
| East 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 43% | 14% | 21% | 21% | -1.6 | +0.5 | +31.9 | -30.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 7,800 | 38% | 13% | 42% | 7% | -8.9 | -6.4 | +19.3 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,300 from Nakabayashi Kei | 25% | 8% | 63% | 5% | -4.1 | +6.1 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 9% | 66% | 4% | -6.3 | +19.5 | -2.4 | -10.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 16% | 18% | 64% | 1% | -5.6 | +6.4 | -1.7 | +0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 5,200 from Sasaki Hisato | 13% | 23% | 63% | 2% | +0.5 | -21.9 | +21.9 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 2% | 94% | 1% | -14.2 | +30.7 | -12.2 | -4.2 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 1% | 17% | 81% | 1% | -8.9 | +43.5 | -31.6 | -3.1 |