Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/29 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 4: Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +42.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -1.7 | -3.1 | +5.5 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 23% | 29% | 25% | -3.7 | +2.3 | -1.6 | +2.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 24% | 29% | 26% | +31.4 | -14.4 | -9.8 | -7.2 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 44% | 14% | 21% | 20% | -2.8 | -0.9 | +35.0 | -31.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 7,800 | 37% | 11% | 45% | 7% | -9.7 | -5.3 | +19.5 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Kei Nakabayashi | 23% | 7% | 66% | 4% | -3.7 | +6.3 | -2.9 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 9% | 65% | 5% | -5.9 | +21.4 | -2.7 | -12.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 20% | 61% | 2% | -4.9 | +3.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 12% | 22% | 64% | 2% | 0.0 | -21.3 | +21.2 | 0.0 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 1% | 94% | 1% | -14.6 | +32.2 | -13.4 | -4.1 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 1% | 19% | 79% | 1% | -8.5 | +42.7 | -30.6 | -3.7 |