Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
9/29 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+65.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +22.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.4 | +22.9 | +0.9 | -20.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 40% | 24% | 14% | +3.3 | +2.9 | -2.1 | -4.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 23% | 42% | 23% | 12% | -1.1 | +12.4 | -4.3 | -7.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 54% | 18% | 8% | -2.8 | -1.4 | -2.8 | +7.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 55% | 16% | 11% | -6.5 | -0.8 | +6.9 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 54% | 20% | 11% | -1.8 | +3.2 | +2.2 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Sho Shiratori | 14% | 56% | 21% | 9% | -17.0 | +19.6 | -3.3 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 5% | 78% | 11% | 6% | 0.0 | -1.4 | +20.7 | -19.2 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 3% | 74% | 21% | 2% | -1.1 | +2.4 | +4.7 | -6.1 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 1% | 77% | 21% | 1% | +18.1 | +4.4 | -21.3 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 90% | 7% | 1% | -2.5 | +2.6 | -4.4 | +4.3 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -2.7 | 0.0 | +7.4 | -4.7 |