Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/3 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+77.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +36.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -12.7 | -2.1 | +21.2 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 16% | 21% | 40% | 22% | 0.0 | -32.9 | +0.1 | +32.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 5% | 37% | 44% | +5.5 | -0.4 | -4.3 | -0.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 17% | 5% | 33% | 45% | +4.3 | -5.6 | +2.9 | -1.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 4% | 37% | 42% | +4.1 | +2.6 | -3.9 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 5% | 33% | 41% | +3.2 | -2.1 | +2.2 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 23% | 5% | 36% | 36% | +0.1 | +26.1 | +3.2 | -29.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 14% | 42% | 18% | -5.1 | +2.8 | +6.1 | -3.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 20% | 14% | 50% | 16% | +17.1 | -16.1 | +2.0 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 4% | 49% | 12% | -6.9 | +6.3 | +3.7 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,500 from Sayaka Kayamori | 28% | 7% | 54% | 12% | -7.9 | -1.7 | +13.3 | -3.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000 | 16% | 3% | 73% | 8% | -14.3 | -10.7 | +36.7 | -11.7 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -3.0 | -1.6 | +6.7 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +19.0 | -2.4 | -5.2 | -11.4 |
| South 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -3.4 | -13.3 | -2.2 | +19.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -21.8 | -10.1 | -7.9 | +39.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -6.1 | -4.2 | -7.9 | +18.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 86% | 14% | -1.6 | -1.0 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15% | +0.4 | -2.4 | +9.4 | -7.4 |