Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/3 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+77.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +35.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -12.5 | -5.3 | +22.1 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 16% | 21% | 41% | 23% | +0.3 | -32.2 | +0.4 | +31.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 14% | 5% | 36% | 44% | +7.9 | -2.8 | -5.0 | -0.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 18% | 5% | 33% | 45% | +2.7 | -2.9 | +3.2 | -3.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 19% | 4% | 36% | 41% | +4.0 | +2.2 | -5.4 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 5% | 31% | 42% | +6.0 | -2.4 | +2.7 | -6.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 28% | 4% | 34% | 34% | -1.8 | +27.1 | +4.5 | -29.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 27% | 15% | 42% | 16% | -4.6 | +1.9 | +5.0 | -2.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 23% | 15% | 48% | 14% | +14.7 | -14.9 | +2.5 | -2.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 34% | 5% | 49% | 12% | -5.1 | +4.3 | +3.3 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,500 from Kayamori Sayaka | 29% | 7% | 53% | 11% | -8.6 | -1.4 | +15.3 | -5.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000 | 13% | 3% | 76% | 7% | -14.2 | -10.1 | +35.3 | -11.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -3.1 | -1.8 | +6.3 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +18.5 | -3.1 | -4.9 | -10.5 |
| South 4 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -2.9 | -12.5 | -2.1 | +17.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -22.2 | -10.5 | -7.5 | +40.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | -5.8 | -4.1 | -7.4 | +17.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 87% | 13% | -1.0 | -1.3 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 0% | 86% | 14% | -0.2 | -2.3 | +9.2 | -6.7 |