Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/3 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +41.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -3.0 | -20.1 | +0.2 | +22.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 13% | 24% | 42% | -1.8 | +3.8 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 14% | 23% | 43% | -1.8 | -5.8 | +5.1 | +2.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 10% | 26% | 46% | -2.6 | -2.8 | +4.1 | +1.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 18% | 9% | 27% | 46% | -7.7 | -6.5 | +22.0 | -7.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200 | 12% | 7% | 46% | 36% | -6.7 | +18.4 | -6.3 | -5.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 14% | 42% | 32% | +7.1 | -4.2 | -2.4 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 13% | 13% | 41% | 33% | -4.3 | +15.8 | -10.5 | -1.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 23% | 32% | 34% | +1.6 | -6.5 | +10.8 | -6.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 12% | 17% | 43% | 27% | +0.1 | -31.8 | -10.0 | +41.6 |
| South 4 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 3% | 1% | 15% | 81% | -20.8 | +43.8 | -29.8 | +6.9 |