Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

10/3 Game 2

Date Arisa finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +40.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 1End● Date Arisa● Katsumata Kenji● Daigo Hiroshi● Setokuma Naoki0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Date● Katsumata● Daigo● Setokuma
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKatsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Daigo Hiroshi
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Daigo Hiroshi
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
East 1Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi25%26%24%25%-3.6-23.2+0.3+26.5
East 2Draw19%13%22%46%-1.7+5.3+1.0-4.6
East 2, 1 honbaDraw20%15%24%41%+0.6-4.6+4.6-0.6
East 3, 2 honbaDraw21%12%27%41%-4.6-3.7+4.8+3.5
East 3, 3 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 6,00018%9%29%44%-7.3-7.2+21.3-6.8
East 3, 4 honbaDaigo Hiroshi tsumo 5,20012%6%47%35%-7.8+19.1-7.1-4.2
East 4Draw10%14%43%34%+6.9-2.7-0.2-4.0
South 1, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki14%14%43%29%-3.6+14.2-10.8+0.2
South 2Draw12%22%33%33%+3.6-8.1+8.4-3.9
South 3, 1 honbaDate Arisa ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi13%16%43%28%-1.3-30.2-8.7+40.2
South 4Daigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki3%1%17%79%-20.7+43.3-30.4+7.8

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)