Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

10/5 Game 2

Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +58.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance	Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance	Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance	Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance	Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change	Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change	Takamiya Mari Expected pt change	Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change
East 1	Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000	26%	23%	24%	26%	+26.2	-7.3	-8.4	-10.6
East 1, 1 honba	Takamiya Mari ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki	46%	18%	18%	18%	+2.2	-8.9	+5.2	+1.4
East 2	Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 5,200	47%	13%	21%	19%	-5.3	-10.2	-2.3	+17.8
East 3	Draw	42%	8%	19%	30%	-2.7	-2.9	+2.0	+3.6
East 3, 1 honba	Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari	39%	8%	19%	33%	+25.8	-0.5	-23.7	-1.5
East 4	Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000	66%	4%	5%	24%	-1.6	-2.0	+9.4	-5.8
South 1	Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei	68%	5%	8%	20%	-22.4	-4.3	+26.2	+0.4
South 2	Kurosawa Saki ron 3,900 from Daigo Hiroshi	43%	5%	26%	26%	+1.2	+11.1	-1.2	-11.0
South 2, 1 honba	Draw	46%	8%	26%	20%	-9.0	+2.9	+2.1	+3.9
South 2, 2 honba	Draw	36%	11%	29%	24%	+2.6	+3.6	-3.5	-2.7
South 2, 3 honba	Draw	38%	13%	26%	23%	-6.1	+4.9	+6.3	-5.1
South 2, 4 honba	Kurosawa Saki ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari	31%	16%	33%	20%	-3.0	+43.4	-34.0	-6.5
South 2, 5 honba	Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000	28%	48%	11%	13%	-6.8	-13.9	+30.4	-9.7
South 3	Draw	26%	34%	28%	12%	+1.2	-12.8	+7.5	+4.0
South 3, 1 honba	Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi	26%	24%	36%	15%	-7.4	+40.5	-9.7	-23.4
South 4	Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000	13%	70%	14%	3%	+58.2	-28.4	-18.8	-10.9

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)