Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/5 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +58.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 27% | +30.1 | -7.8 | -10.6 | -11.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 50% | 16% | 18% | 17% | +0.3 | -7.4 | +8.1 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200 | 51% | 13% | 20% | 16% | -8.5 | -10.4 | -1.7 | +20.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 9% | 21% | 30% | -1.1 | -3.9 | -0.1 | +5.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 40% | 7% | 20% | 33% | +25.8 | -1.0 | -22.9 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 66% | 4% | 6% | 24% | -0.5 | -2.3 | +8.4 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 69% | 4% | 8% | 19% | -23.2 | -3.6 | +25.8 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 44% | 4% | 26% | 27% | +0.1 | +11.9 | -2.4 | -9.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 9% | 24% | 21% | -7.6 | +3.5 | +3.2 | +0.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 11% | 29% | 23% | +0.5 | +3.9 | -3.6 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 14% | 27% | 24% | -2.7 | +3.2 | +5.4 | -5.9 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 34% | 15% | 31% | 20% | -5.4 | +44.5 | -34.0 | -5.1 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 49% | 9% | 15% | -6.0 | -14.9 | +31.9 | -11.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 33% | 29% | 13% | +2.7 | -14.1 | +6.7 | +4.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 28% | 22% | 35% | 16% | -9.2 | +43.8 | -11.2 | -23.4 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 73% | 10% | 4% | +58.4 | -29.7 | -16.7 | -12.0 |