Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/6 Game 1
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+49.7pt). The game was decided in South 1: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +41.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -14.5 | +21.1 | -1.9 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 16% | 40% | 22% | 22% | +1.2 | -18.3 | +15.2 | +1.8 |
| East 3 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 18% | 24% | 35% | 24% | +8.1 | +2.0 | -7.9 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 27% | 27% | 23% | -6.7 | +17.8 | -4.1 | -7.0 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 42% | 23% | 17% | -22.0 | -11.5 | -8.2 | +41.7 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 28% | 16% | 51% | -6.2 | -8.9 | +16.0 | -0.9 |
| South 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 20% | 25% | 52% | +22.9 | -7.3 | -19.3 | +3.8 |
| South 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 1,300 from Sugawara Hiroe | 14% | 14% | 12% | 61% | -23.4 | +11.6 | -4.6 | +16.3 |