Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/9 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +46.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +29.7 | -9.9 | -8.1 | -11.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 17% | 17% | 18% | -2.2 | -4.9 | -1.4 | +8.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 16% | 16% | 22% | -4.1 | -12.3 | -8.7 | +25.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 40% | 8% | 11% | 41% | -35.7 | +0.3 | +34.8 | +0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 24,000 | 15% | 10% | 33% | 42% | -17.8 | -14.3 | +54.3 | -22.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 3% | 2% | 85% | 11% | +21.4 | -3.6 | -16.8 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 18,000 | 11% | 2% | 71% | 16% | -13.8 | -9.1 | -23.2 | +46.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 3,900 | 6% | 1% | 34% | 59% | -2.8 | -0.6 | -5.5 | +8.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 1% | 26% | 69% | -1.5 | +2.3 | +1.0 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 1% | 25% | 70% | +4.1 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 25% | 69% | +30.5 | -8.4 | -11.9 | -10.2 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 20% | 1% | 21% | 59% | -19.7 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +19.8 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 3% | 1% | 13% | 84% | +12.7 | -2.8 | -5.4 | -4.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 0% | 11% | 82% | -3.3 | -1.2 | +7.1 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 0% | 16% | 78% | -4.0 | +3.7 | -5.9 | +6.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 3% | 93% | -5.0 | -0.7 | +4.1 | +1.6 |