Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/9 Game 1
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +26.7 | -7.5 | -10.7 | -8.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 48% | 18% | 17% | 18% | -1.8 | -3.7 | -2.7 | +8.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 46% | 17% | 15% | 22% | -5.7 | -12.2 | -5.6 | +23.5 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 39% | 9% | 12% | 39% | -34.4 | -0.4 | +31.6 | +3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 24,000 | 16% | 9% | 31% | 45% | -16.7 | -14.7 | +55.4 | -24.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 3% | 2% | 84% | 12% | +21.0 | -1.5 | -18.5 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 18,000 | 12% | 3% | 68% | 18% | -15.7 | -9.4 | -20.5 | +45.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 3,900 | 5% | 1% | 35% | 59% | -2.1 | -1.5 | -5.1 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 4% | 1% | 26% | 69% | -0.6 | +3.0 | -0.8 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 4% | 1% | 25% | 70% | +3.5 | -1.4 | -0.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 27% | 67% | +33.3 | -8.6 | -12.6 | -12.1 |
| South 1, 5 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 22% | 1% | 22% | 55% | -21.7 | +0.7 | -1.7 | +22.6 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 3% | 1% | 12% | 84% | +11.8 | -3.8 | -4.1 | -3.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 6% | 0% | 10% | 84% | -3.7 | -0.8 | +6.9 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 0% | 16% | 79% | -3.0 | +3.1 | -6.4 | +6.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 3% | 0% | 4% | 94% | -5.4 | -0.4 | +5.0 | +0.7 |