Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/10 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +44.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -2.9 | -5.2 | 0.0 | +8.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 23% | 24% | 31% | -3.8 | +4.9 | -3.1 | +2.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 26% | 22% | 33% | -1.0 | -8.4 | -8.3 | +17.7 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 18% | 16% | 48% | +22.7 | -2.9 | -13.2 | -6.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 16% | 9% | 41% | -3.4 | -3.4 | +11.3 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 16% | 15% | 38% | -3.0 | -4.4 | +7.7 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 14% | 19% | 38% | +44.9 | -22.5 | -9.2 | -13.1 |
| South 3 | Tomohiro Honda ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 81% | 0% | 6% | 12% | +1.6 | +2.2 | -19.4 | +15.6 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 84% | 0% | 0% | 16% | +4.1 | +14.0 | -10.8 | -7.3 |