Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/12 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+67.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +38.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,000 from Hori Shingo | 26% | 26% | 23% | 25% | -2.9 | -5.7 | +2.5 | +6.1 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 24% | 22% | 26% | 28% | -0.4 | +31.7 | -3.1 | -28.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 45% | 22% | 12% | +4.5 | -4.4 | +2.7 | -2.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 25% | 41% | 24% | 11% | -2.2 | -2.2 | +7.0 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 38% | 29% | 10% | -13.6 | -15.0 | +38.0 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 7,700 from Hori Shingo | 11% | 20% | 64% | 6% | -0.1 | -22.6 | +21.4 | +1.3 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 6% | 6% | 85% | 3% | -18.5 | +1.6 | -0.9 | +17.8 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 5% | 86% | 6% | -6.2 | +29.9 | -6.4 | -17.3 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 17% | 79% | 2% | +41.1 | -16.0 | -10.8 | -14.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,200 | 15% | 13% | 70% | 2% | -7.3 | -4.7 | +1.7 | +10.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 10% | 12% | 75% | 3% | -3.5 | +6.1 | -0.6 | -1.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Hori Shingo | 8% | 14% | 75% | 3% | +2.9 | -17.1 | +14.8 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 2% | 1% | 95% | 2% | +1.9 | -34.1 | -0.2 | +32.4 |
| South 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,000 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 0% | 96% | 4% | +8.5 | -1.7 | +2.1 | -8.9 |