Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/12 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+67.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 3 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +41.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Shingo Hori | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -1.0 | -6.7 | +1.8 | +5.9 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 24% | 21% | 26% | 29% | +1.7 | +32.8 | -3.3 | -31.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 45% | 22% | 11% | +5.3 | -6.8 | +3.1 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 38% | 25% | 11% | -2.7 | +0.8 | +4.5 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 39% | 26% | 10% | -16.5 | -15.6 | +41.2 | -9.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 7,700 from Shingo Hori | 11% | 20% | 65% | 5% | +1.8 | -23.2 | +20.6 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 6% | 5% | 86% | 3% | -17.6 | +0.7 | -0.6 | +17.5 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 5% | 86% | 6% | -6.8 | +30.1 | -6.3 | -17.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 15% | 80% | 2% | +39.5 | -14.8 | -11.7 | -13.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 13% | 68% | 2% | -7.7 | -5.7 | +2.6 | +10.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 10% | 77% | 4% | -2.6 | +7.0 | -1.9 | -2.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Shingo Hori | 8% | 14% | 74% | 3% | +2.2 | -17.4 | +15.4 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 2% | 1% | 95% | 2% | +2.9 | -34.4 | -0.5 | +32.0 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,000 from Shingo Hori | 0% | 0% | 95% | 4% | +8.3 | -1.4 | +2.4 | -9.3 |