Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/16 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+59.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +26.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +0.2 | +3.5 | -7.4 | +3.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 25% | 28% | 20% | 26% | -3.5 | +25.5 | -1.3 | -20.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 48% | 16% | 16% | +3.0 | -8.0 | +6.6 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 23% | 42% | 22% | 13% | +26.3 | +0.4 | -27.8 | +1.2 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 43% | 39% | 6% | 12% | +1.0 | -2.9 | +27.3 | -25.5 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 44% | 35% | 17% | 4% | +20.2 | -8.6 | -8.8 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 67% | 21% | 10% | 2% | -1.7 | +8.2 | -6.6 | +0.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 66% | 26% | 7% | 2% | +9.7 | -7.8 | -0.8 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 82% | 12% | 5% | 2% | -11.9 | +17.0 | -3.9 | -1.1 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 64% | 33% | 1% | 2% | +16.1 | -13.2 | +2.3 | -5.2 |