Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/20 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +55.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -9.4 | -3.3 | +15.0 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 3,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 18% | 23% | 36% | 24% | +8.4 | -10.0 | -0.1 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 23% | 17% | 34% | 26% | -29.8 | +0.3 | +31.8 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 5,200 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 7% | 11% | 65% | 18% | +15.6 | -17.2 | +1.1 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 10% | 5% | 68% | 17% | -0.2 | +0.7 | -6.2 | +5.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 6,400 from Kenji Katsumata | 12% | 6% | 60% | 22% | +0.6 | +19.6 | +4.4 | -24.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 12% | 69% | 8% | -5.9 | -3.0 | +1.4 | +7.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 11% | 73% | 10% | +28.1 | -17.8 | -2.2 | -8.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 3% | 71% | 8% | -0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 16% | 2% | 74% | 8% | -1.9 | -11.0 | +0.3 | +12.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 0% | 77% | 11% | -20.9 | -6.5 | -27.6 | +55.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 0% | 22% | 75% | -4.2 | +5.1 | -7.7 | +6.8 |