Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/20 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +54.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | -8.2 | -3.2 | +15.3 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 3,200 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 17% | 24% | 35% | 23% | +9.8 | -10.6 | +0.9 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 12,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 25% | 17% | 36% | 23% | -30.9 | +0.1 | +29.8 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 5,200 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 6% | 12% | 63% | 19% | +14.0 | -16.9 | +1.9 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 9% | 6% | 67% | 18% | +1.9 | -0.6 | -6.1 | +4.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 6,400 from Katsumata Kenji | 11% | 7% | 60% | 23% | +0.1 | +20.5 | +4.1 | -24.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 10% | 13% | 68% | 9% | -6.0 | -4.4 | +3.2 | +7.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 10% | 74% | 11% | +29.8 | -16.9 | -4.1 | -8.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 20% | 2% | 70% | 8% | -2.5 | +1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 15% | 2% | 74% | 9% | -1.2 | -11.9 | +0.2 | +12.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 1% | 76% | 12% | -19.7 | -6.4 | -28.1 | +54.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 1% | 21% | 74% | -5.2 | +4.6 | -6.7 | +7.2 |