Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/23 Game 1
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+89.4pt). The game was decided in East 1, 3 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +23.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +1.0 | -3.2 | +2.6 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 7,800 | 27% | 23% | 28% | 23% | +24.0 | -7.8 | -10.7 | -5.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 45% | 18% | 19% | 18% | +2.2 | -3.1 | +4.0 | -3.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 5,200 | 46% | 15% | 22% | 17% | -12.6 | -3.5 | -7.1 | +23.3 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 35% | 15% | 18% | 33% | -0.1 | -3.3 | -18.8 | +22.2 |
| East 3 | Nakada Kana tsumo 2,700 | 31% | 10% | 9% | 51% | +0.1 | +6.9 | -7.8 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 9,600 from Mizuhara Akina | 31% | 12% | 5% | 52% | -4.0 | 0.0 | -16.3 | +20.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 7% | 1% | 72% | -3.6 | -1.6 | -1.1 | +6.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Nakada Kana | 15% | 6% | 1% | 78% | +13.8 | -9.5 | -0.9 | -3.4 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 4,800 from Mizuhara Akina | 23% | 3% | 1% | 73% | +10.8 | +0.2 | -7.8 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 33% | 3% | 0% | 65% | +23.9 | +0.4 | -14.6 | -9.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 58% | 2% | 0% | 40% | -9.7 | +0.3 | -9.7 | +19.1 |
| South 2 | Nakada Kana tsumo 3,000 | 36% | 1% | 0% | 62% | -1.8 | +3.4 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakada Kana ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 36% | 1% | 0% | 63% | -7.5 | +4.0 | -0.4 | +3.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 2% | 0% | 72% | -9.7 | -8.1 | -1.8 | +19.6 |
| South 3 | Draw | 4% | 0% | 0% | 95% | -1.9 | -0.1 | -2.5 | +4.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nakada Kana tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.5 | +3.3 | -1.0 | -1.8 |