Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/23 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+89.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +23.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +2.0 | -1.0 | +2.7 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 7,800 | 27% | 24% | 26% | 23% | +24.5 | -10.2 | -6.3 | -8.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 17% | 20% | 18% | +1.9 | -2.3 | +1.6 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 47% | 16% | 21% | 17% | -9.4 | -6.7 | -5.3 | +21.4 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 40% | 12% | 19% | 29% | -1.9 | -1.1 | -20.8 | +23.8 |
| East 3 | Kana Nakada tsumo 2,700 | 33% | 9% | 8% | 50% | -0.7 | +6.1 | -7.5 | +2.1 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 9,600 from Akina Mizuhara | 32% | 11% | 5% | 53% | -3.9 | +1.7 | -15.8 | +18.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 8% | 2% | 70% | -3.1 | -2.7 | -0.2 | +6.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Kana Nakada | 16% | 6% | 2% | 76% | +12.3 | -9.0 | -2.1 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 4,800 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 2% | 1% | 75% | +10.4 | +1.1 | -8.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 31% | 3% | 0% | 65% | +24.7 | +0.8 | -13.9 | -11.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 60% | 2% | 0% | 38% | -10.8 | -0.7 | -10.6 | +22.2 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 3,000 | 34% | 1% | 0% | 65% | -0.6 | +4.1 | -0.8 | -2.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 35% | 2% | 0% | 64% | -7.3 | +3.3 | +0.3 | +3.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 1% | 0% | 72% | -9.9 | -8.1 | -2.2 | +20.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 0% | 0% | 96% | -2.0 | -0.1 | -2.1 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -0.5 | +3.5 | -0.8 | -2.1 |