Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/24 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+68.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -13.2 | +20.5 | -4.7 | -2.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 16% | 42% | 21% | 22% | +6.7 | -1.6 | -2.7 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 40% | 20% | 21% | +42.2 | -14.5 | -20.1 | -7.6 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 56% | 23% | 7% | 15% | +13.7 | -2.7 | -0.4 | -10.6 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka | 73% | 16% | 5% | 6% | +0.1 | +4.8 | -0.6 | -4.3 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 75% | 16% | 5% | 5% | +23.6 | -29.4 | +3.8 | +2.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +0.8 | -4.6 | +6.1 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | -1.8 | -29.1 | +28.3 | +2.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 93% | 0% | 5% | 2% | -1.9 | -7.0 | -22.1 | +30.9 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -1.1 | +0.2 | -7.2 | +8.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 93% | 0% | 0% | 7% | -4.4 | -2.0 | -3.1 | +9.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 88% | 0% | 0% | 12% | +2.5 | +0.2 | +3.1 | -5.8 |