Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
10/24 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+68.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +40.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 26% | 24% | 28% | -8.6 | +20.2 | -6.0 | -5.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 40% | 20% | 23% | +5.9 | -3.6 | -0.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 40% | 19% | 22% | +40.4 | -11.6 | -17.1 | -11.8 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 54% | 24% | 9% | 14% | +14.7 | -3.5 | -3.9 | -7.2 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 72% | 15% | 5% | 7% | +0.9 | +5.9 | -1.0 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 74% | 18% | 4% | 4% | +23.4 | -32.1 | +3.5 | +5.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 97% | 0% | 2% | 2% | +0.9 | -3.7 | +6.1 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 97% | 0% | 2% | 2% | -1.6 | -29.2 | +29.6 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 94% | 0% | 5% | 1% | -1.5 | -6.7 | -22.3 | +30.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -1.5 | +0.3 | -7.2 | +8.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | -3.8 | -2.3 | -3.2 | +9.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 89% | 0% | 0% | 11% | +1.8 | +0.4 | +3.3 | -5.4 |